Source: Packaging Zone

The purchasing power of residents is not enough. The iron-based base is so hot that consumption is melting like ice and ice. The overall performance of the industrial raw paper industry in 2018 is easy to fall. The latest statistics show that the paper price index for November 2018 was 1119.51, down 10.77% from the previous month and up 2.33% from the same period last year.

In November, the packaging paper market continued to fall. Due to the downward pressure on the domestic economy and the shrinking demand for packaging paper, the inventory of finished products in the paper and paper products industry has increased by more than 30% year-on-year. It is expected that the total production and consumption of the paper industry will decrease this year.

In the autumn and winter, various pollution inspections are in full swing, and environmental protection inspections have started. Most small and medium-sized manufacturers have stopped production and may stop production. The finished paper stocks of paper mills around the country are still at a high level, and the demand for waste paper is not prosperous, resulting in a fall in prices.

In terms of corrugated paper and cardboard, downstream demand has also been in a downturn. On the one hand, Sino-US trade friction has suppressed demand for paper packaging. On the other hand, because raw material prices have remained unstable in the past, some users have abandoned traditional cartons, so paper prices have risen. The motivation is not sufficient.

After the price of the base paper failed for several consecutive attacks, the paper industry once again heard the price increase. The main reason is that the paper industry has stopped production in large areas, the downstream customers' stocks of raw materials have remained low, and the expectations of more orders may be brought about by the New Year and the Spring Festival.

But some new situations have emerged, which are offsetting the upward momentum to some extent. In November, the price indices of bulk commodities such as energy, basic chemicals and plastics all showed a significant downward trend. In particular, fuel prices have fallen by 30%, and imported pulp prices have fallen, which is not conducive to the rise of the base paper.

On the demand side, there is currently no double-cutting demand for demand, and many factories are already planning early holidays. The latest incident of Huawei CFO deduction has put a thick layer of ice and snow on the Sino-US trade that has just eased, and the continued decline in export orders seems to be a foregone conclusion. If there is no big favor, I believe that there will be no large purchase intention, and the logic of the continuous rise of the original paper will cease to exist.

In general, the overall price of paper in December will be relatively stable, and there is almost no possibility of a big increase.

Responsible editor: Ge

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